Entries for September 2014

The rocketing membership of the pro-independence parties shouldn’t be such a surprise. Thousands of energised Yessers feel an urgent need to express their unity and defiance, to hug and support each other, and to maintain the buzz and fellow-feeling of a mass campaign. The SNP and Green parties are convenient receptacles for the half-thwarted passions of ‘the 45%’, and both are credible keepers of the flame.

Read more...

Only 45% of Scots said yes to independent statehood, but a massive majority said yes to direct democracy. The turnout of 84.65% was the highest for any UK electoral event since the introduction of universal suffrage, significantly trumping the 65.1% who voted in the 2010 UK general election and the 50.6% who bothered to turn out for the 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections.

Read more...

The victory for the No campaign in last week’s referendum means that, for the foreseeable future, Scotland will remain part of the United Kingdom, and that its (domestic) governance will continue to be split between Westminster and Holyrood.  The result was a decisive one in that there was a clear margin of victory, achieved through a fair and legitimate process. However, the referendum is less decisive than some may have hoped for in two senses.

Read more...

This is a copy of a blog post that was, in the event, not needed. My colleagues have told me that my writing has a calming, if not soporific, quality, and I thought that I should use this skill to good effect by preparing a post for publication in the event of a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum.  The post was written at a time when it looked like the vote could go either way. Now, just a few days later, the context in which it was produced seems both foreign and remote. There is a temptation – which I have resisted – to modify its text in the light of hindsight. I’ve left it unaltered: it stands as an exercise in counter-factual constitutional history, an engagement with the constitution crisis that might have been. 

Read more...

“Hello darkness, my old friend, I've come to talk with you again.” With apologies to Simon & Garfunkel, we note the post-referendum retrieval, from the very long grass in which it seemed to have been quietly resting, of the West Lothian/English Question (‘WLQ’).  Oh dear.

Read more...

Explaining the 85% turnout in the referendum is relatively straightforward.  Explaining the 45-55% Yes-No vote is less so.  Turnouts are generally affected by two factors: perceptions of the importance of the issue under debate and perceptions of how close the vote is likely to be.  Taking these into account we would have expected a high turnout but 85% is at a level never previously witnessed in modern Scottish politics.  More explanation is required.

Read more...

Time is now running out for us all in the referendum debate, so I will keep this as short as I can.  I hold many of the same views as  my friends and colleagues Christine Bell and Aileen McHarg, both of whom have just posted on our common  SCFF blog site detailed, well–argued and  heart-felt  cases for preferring the much-discussed uncertainties of ‘Yes’ to the newly minted uncertainties of  the eleventh hour ‘Vow’ of Better Together.  

Read more...

Today’s papers carry the text of a pledge by David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg that a No vote in Thursday’s referendum is not a vote for the status quo.  Rather, they claim, a No vote will mean ‘faster, safer and better change’ to the devolution settlement than a Yes vote would bring.

Read more...

It’s the morning.  I’ve got the kids out the door, a cup of tea in my hand.  Aahh, I’ve time to think.  In fact, I also work full time as Professor of Constitutional Law, so sometimes thinking is part of my job. But this is personal.  I have a vote to cast and my kids, and a lot of other people’s future, appears to lie on it.  And the tea helps more than the constitutional law – we have been off all constitutional charts for some time now.

Read more...

The findings presented in this paper are based on an in-depth analysis of eight newspapers sold in Scotland (The Times, The Daily Telegraph, The Sun, The Daily Record, The Daily Express, The Daily Mail, The Scotsman and The Herald). For purposes of analysis, all relevant front-page articles, editorials and comment pieces were included in the study, with other articles and letters being omitted due to restrictions on time.

Read more...

The People of Scotland are facing a remarkable constitutional and constituent moment. They will decide by referendum if they want to navigate the turbulent waters of the international society separately from the rest of the UK. At this moment, it is important to think about how the constitution of an independent Scotland should be.

Read more...

Once upon a time it seemed like a good idea to try to clarify the route (Article 48 or Article 49 TEU) through which and the terms on which (with or without UK opt-outs on Euro, Schengen etc) an independent Scotland might join the EU prior to the great referendum vote of September 18^th. Clarity would have allowed for a more informed assessment ahead of ‘D’ day by all involved in the drawn out constitutional drama – a more considered appraisal of the risks attendant upon this or that choice. But clarity has not been forthcoming, and it is now far too late in the day to imagine that it will.

Read more...

I agree with Sionaidh Douglas-Scott that the accession of an independent Scotland to the European Union is not in any serious doubt. I develop this point in a paper written with Katie Boyle here. In this blog I argue that although accession will no doubt take time, there is unlikely to be any period within which Scotland is effectively cast out of the EU.

Read more...

Whether anyone wants to exclude Scotland from the EU is a question of politics.  Whether anyone has the ability to do so is a question of law.  The tendency to assume that the politicians will determine the place of an independent Scotland in, or out of, the EU overlooks the fact that their room for manoeuvre is circumscribed by EU law.

Read more...

The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence has rightly crystallised attention on the renewable electricity sector. With the possibility of Scotland gaining complete control over energy policy and related areas, understanding the implications for renewable deployment going forward is critical. However, the debate has concentrated on alternate post-referendum visions of the future often mired down in heavily politicised claims and counter-claims. Little attention has focussed on whether or not the Scottish proposals on the table to date amount to a significant change, whether the public vote for independence or to remain in the UK.

Read more...

Joseph Weiler today published a blog post in which he argues that Scottish independence is incompatible with the ideas of Europe, and that the road to membership is bumpier than some would have it.

Read more...

Referendums are now being used in constitutional decision-making to an unprecedented extent. It has been estimated that of the 58 functioning electoral democracies with a population of more than three million, 39 had conducted at least one national referendum between 1975 and 2000. Nowhere is the referendum more in vogue than in Europe.

Read more...